Limited information is available on what is commonly thought of as "working memory"--the collection of information that an analyst holds in the forefront of the mind as he or she does analysis. The general concept of working memory seems clear from personal introspection. In writing this chapter, I am very conscious of the constraints on my ability to keep many pieces of information in mind while experimenting with ways to organize this information and seeking words to express my thoughts. To help offset these limits on my working memory, I have accumulated a large number of written notes containing ideas and half-written paragraphs. Only by using such external memory aids am I able to cope with the volume and complexity of the information I want to use.

A well-known article written over 40 years ago, titled "The Magic Number Seven--Plus or Minus Two," contends that seven--plus or minus two--is the number of things people can keep in their head all at once. ³⁴ That limitation on working memory is the source of many problems. People have difficulty grasping a problem in all its complexity. This is why we sometimes have trouble making up our minds. For example, we think first about the arguments in favor, and then about the arguments against, and we can't keep all those pros and cons in our head at the same time to get an overview of how they balance off against each other.

The recommended technique for coping with this limitation of working memory is called externalizing the problem--getting it out of one's head and down on paper in some simplified form that shows the main elements of the problem and how they relate to each other. Chapter 7, "Structuring Analytical Problems," discusses ways of doing this. They all involve breaking down a problem into its component parts and then preparing a simple "model" that shows how the parts relate to the whole. When working on a small part of the problem, the model keeps one from losing sight of the whole.

A simple model of an analytical problem facilitates the assimilation of new information into long-term memory; it provides a structure to which bits and pieces of information can be related. The model defines the categories for filing information in memory and retrieving it on demand. In other words, it serves as a mnemonic device that provides the hooks on which to hang information so that it can be found when needed.

The model is initially an artificial construct, like the previously noted acronym "HOMES." With usage, however, it rapidly becomes an integral part of one's conceptual structure--the set of schemata used in processing information. At this point, remembering new information occurs by assimilation rather than by mnemonics. This enhances the ability to recall and make inferences from a larger volume of information in a greater variety of ways than would otherwise be possible.

"Hardening of the Categories". Memory processes tend to work with generalized categories. If people do not have an appropriate category for something, they are unlikely to perceive it, store it in memory, or be able to retrieve it from memory later. If categories are drawn incorrectly, people are likely to perceive and remember things inaccurately. When information about phenomena that are different in important respects nonetheless gets stored in memory under a single concept, errors of analysis may result. For example, many observers of international affairs had the impression that Communism was a monolithic movement, that it was the same everywhere and controlled from Moscow. All Communist countries were grouped together in a single, undifferentiated category called "international Communism" or "the Communist bloc." In 1948, this led many in the United States to downplay the importance of the Stalin-Tito split. According to one authority, it "may help explain why many Western minds, including scholars, remained relatively blind to the existence and significance of Sino-Soviet differences long after they had been made manifest in the realm of ideological formulae."³⁵

"Hardening of the categories" is a common analytical weakness. Fine distinctions among categories and tolerance for ambiguity contribute to more effective analysis.

Things That Influence What Is Remembered. Factors that influence how information is stored in memory and that affect future retrievability include: being the first-stored information on a given topic, the amount of attention focused on the information, the credibility of the information, and the importance attributed to the information at the moment of storage. By influencing the content of memory, all of these factors also influence the outcome of intelligence analysis.

Chapter 12 on "Biases in Estimating Probabilities" describes how availability in memory influences judgments of probability. The more instances a person can recall of a phenomenon, the more probable that phenomenon seems to be. This is true even though ability to recall past examples is influenced by vividness of the information, how recently something occurred, its impact upon one's personal welfare, and many other factors unrelated to the actual probability of the phenomenon.

Memory Rarely Changes Retroactively. Analysts often receive new information that should, logically, cause them to reevaluate the credibility or significance of previous information. Ideally, the earlier information should then become either more salient and readily available in memory, or less so. But it does not work that way. Unfortunately, memories are seldom reassessed or reorganized retroactively in response to new information. For example, information that is dismissed as unimportant or irrelevant because it did not fit an analyst's expectations does not become more memorable even if the analyst changes his or her thinking to the point where the same information, received today, would be recognized as very significant.

Understanding how memory works provides some insight into the nature of creativity, openness to new information, and breaking mind-sets. All involve spinning new links in the spider web of memory--links among facts, concepts, and schemata that previously were not connected or only weakly connected.

Training courses for intelligence analysts sometimes focus on trying to open up an analyst's established mind-set, to get him or her to see problems from different perspectives in order to give a fairer shake to alternative explanations. More often than not, the reaction of experienced analysts is that they have devoted 20 years to developing their present mind-set, that it has served them well, and that they see no need to change it. Such analysts view themselves, often accurately, as comparable to the chess masters. They believe the information embedded in their long-term memory permits them to perceive patterns and make inferences that are beyond the reach of other observers. In one sense, they are quite correct in not wanting to change; it is, indeed, their existing schemata or mind-set that enables them to achieve whatever success they enjoy in making analytical judgments.

There is, however, a crucial difference between the chess master and the master intelligence analyst. Although the chess master faces a different opponent in each match, the environment in which each contest takes place remains stable and unchanging: the permissible moves of the diverse pieces are rigidly determined, and the rules cannot be changed without the master's knowledge. Once the chess master develops an accurate schema, there is no need to change it. The intelligence analyst, however, must cope with a rapidly changing world. Many countries that previously were US adversaries are now our formal or de facto allies. The American and Russian governments and societies are not the same today as they were 20 or even 10 or five years ago. Schemata that were valid yesterday may no longer be functional tomorrow.

Learning new schemata often requires the unlearning of existing ones, and this is exceedingly difficult. It is always easier to learn a new habit than to unlearn an old one. Schemata in long-term memory that are so essential to effective analysis are also the principal source of inertia in recognizing and adapting to a changing environment. Chapter 6, "Keeping an Open Mind," identifies tools for dealing with this problem.

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